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S&P 500 DCA Calculator: Dollar Cost Averaging vs Lump Sum

Replay monthly S&P 500 investing since 1928 with dividends. Compare dollar cost averaging with investing the same money as a lump sum.

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Instant answer

If you invest $500/month for 20 years at a 10% annual return, you could reach about $382,848.

In today's money, at 2.5% inflation a year, that's worth about $233,641.

You put in $120,000. Interest earned adds about $262,848.

Millionaire path

To aim for $1,000,000 in 20 years, try about $1,317/month.

Your projected total

$382,848

After 20 years at a 10% annual return

Total Invested

$120,000

Your contributions

Interest earned

$262,848

219.04% return

Total Fees Paid

$0

You could lose $0 to fees over 20 years.

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Purchasing Power Analysis

Worth in today's purchasing power:

$233,641

This is what your final balance would be worth in today's money

Nominal value in future dollars:

$382,848

In 20 years at 2.5% annual inflation

Why the difference? Due to 2.5% inflation, your $382,848 in 20 years will have the same purchasing power as $233,641 today. This means goods and services that cost $233,641 today will cost $382,848 in the future.

Wealth Growth

Replay monthly S&P 500 investing and compare it with a lump sum

This DCA calculator uses actual S&P 500 returns from 1928 to 2025, with dividends reinvested. It covers the index only, not crypto or single stocks. Pick a monthly amount and a range to see what steady buying would have produced, and what the same money would have become if you had invested it all at the start. To project forward with your own return assumption, use the S&P 500 calculator.

S&P 500 dollar cost averaging vs lump sum

2000–2025: $500 a month, $156,000 invested in total. The lump sum puts the same $156,000 in at the start of 2000.

Nominal values, dividends reinvested

Dollar cost averaging
$854,513
$156,000 invested
Lump sum at the start
$1,152,152
7.99% annualized index return

The lump sum ended $297,639 higher over this range. Price only, without dividends, the monthly plan would have ended at $637,468.

View year-by-year table
Year-end balances, dollar cost averaging vs lump sum
YearDCA balanceLump-sum balanceDCA invested so far
2000$5,702$141,910$6,000
2001$10,634$125,094$12,000
2002$13,557$97,616$18,000
2003$24,288$125,296$24,000
2004$33,241$138,756$30,000
2005$41,004$145,464$36,000
2006$53,902$168,175$42,000
2007$63,035$177,399$48,000
2008$44,724$112,556$54,000
2009$63,136$141,747$60,000
2010$78,965$162,756$66,000
2011$86,690$166,171$72,000
2012$106,971$192,576$78,000
2013$148,357$254,480$84,000
2014$174,853$288,897$90,000
2015$183,308$292,881$96,000
2016$211,265$327,362$102,000
2017$263,592$398,090$108,000
2018$258,312$381,263$114,000
2019$345,907$500,262$120,000
2020$414,822$590,425$126,000
2021$539,807$758,513$132,000
2022$447,835$621,696$138,000
2023$571,361$783,715$144,000
2024$720,289$978,692$150,000
2025$854,513$1,152,152$156,000

Source: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern, "Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills" (histretSP.xls); inflation = FRED CPIAUCNS annual change, as included in that file.

Annual returns spread evenly across months, with deposits at the start of each month. Excludes fees and taxes. Past returns do not predict future returns.

Does dollar cost averaging beat a lump sum?

Usually not, on paper. Across the 89 ten-year windows from 1928–1937 to 2016–2025, investing the whole amount at the start ended higher in 82. Monthly investing ended higher in 7. The index rose in most years, so money invested earlier had more time to grow.

DCA wins when a fall comes early. From 2000 to 2009, $500 a month grew to $63,136, while the same $60,000 invested in January 2000 ended at $54,518.

If you invest from each paycheck, you are already doing DCA: the money goes in as soon as you have it. The choice only matters when you already hold a large sum. The windows above favor investing it at once. Spreading it over a few months gives up some expected return in exchange for less regret if a crash follows.

How this DCA calculator works

Each year's S&P 500 return comes from the dataset named under the results and is spread evenly over twelve months. Deposits land at the start of each month. The lump sum goes in at the start of the first year. The inflation toggle deflates every balance and each deposit using the dataset's annual US inflation figures.

Results exclude fees, taxes and trading costs. Annual data also smooths falls inside a year, such as March 2020, so the real month-by-month path was bumpier than the table. For an index fund's costs, try the VOO calculator.

Built and maintained by Oscar Gallego Ruiz. Historical data through 2025. Methodology and sources.

Disclaimer: WealthSim is an independent educational tool for financial simulation and is not affiliated with any financial institution, including Wealthsimple. All calculations are for educational purposes and do not constitute financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a DCA calculator?
A dollar cost averaging (DCA) calculator shows what investing a fixed amount at regular intervals would produce. This one replays actual yearly S&P 500 returns with dividends reinvested and compares the result with investing the same total as a lump sum at the start.
Is dollar cost averaging better than investing a lump sum?
Historically, the lump sum usually ended higher. In 82 of 89 ten-year S&P 500 windows since 1928, investing everything at the start beat spreading it monthly. DCA did better when the market fell early, such as 2000 to 2009.
What would $500 a month in the S&P 500 since 2000 be worth?
With dividends reinvested, $500 a month from January 2000 to the end of 2025 grew to about $854,513 on $156,000 invested, before fees and taxes. The same total invested in January 2000 would have reached $1,152,152.
Does this DCA calculator work for Bitcoin or single stocks?
No. It uses S&P 500 index history only. Crypto and single stocks have very different return histories, so these results do not apply to them.

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