From January 1928 to December 2025 the S&P 500 returned 10.0% a year with dividends reinvested. One dollar became about $11,570.
That's the number behind "the market returns 10% a year", and it's accurate. It's also easy to misuse. Leave out dividends and the figure drops to 6.3%. Adjust for inflation and it's 6.8%. Start the clock in a bad year and ten years can go by with nothing to show for it.
The figures below come from NYU Stern's annual dataset (1928 to 2025). If you want every year on its own, the full year-by-year table is further down. To run your own numbers, the S&P 500 calculator takes any return you give it, and the end of this page suggests which one to give it.
What is the average annual return of the S&P 500?
| Period | Total return | Price only | Real (after inflation) | $10,000 became |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years (2016–2025) | 14.7% | 12.8% | 11.1% | $39,339 |
| 20 years (2006–2025) | 10.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | $79,205 |
| 30 years (1996–2025) | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | $187,103 |
| 50 years (1976–2025) | 11.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | $2,793,302 |
| 98 years (1928–2025) | 10.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | $115,701,364 |
You will also see 11.9% quoted. That is the simple average of the yearly returns from 1928 to 2025. The 10.0% above is what an investor actually earned per year, compounded. The simple average is higher because a 30% loss needs a gain of more than 40% to recover, and averaging the two percentages hides that.
The last ten years ran well above the long-run average. Nobody should plan on 14.7% a year, but plenty of people do after a good decade.
Dividends account for a large part of the return: almost 4 points a year over the full history. A stock chart shows the price column. Your brokerage account, if you reinvest dividends, gets the total-return column.
Best and worst S&P 500 years, 1928–2025
For a clickable heatmap and the annualized return between any two years, see S&P 500 annual returns by year.
To replay these years with monthly deposits, use the S&P 500 DCA calculator. To see what reinvesting the dividends adds, use the dividend reinvestment calculator.
| Year | Total return | Price return | Inflation | Real total return | $100 from 1928 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17.7% | 16.4% | 2.7% | 14.6% | $1,157,014 |
| 2024 | 24.9% | 23.3% | 2.9% | 21.4% | $982,821 |
| 2023 | 26.1% | 24.2% | 3.4% | 22.0% | $787,021 |
| 2022 | −18.0% | −19.4% | 6.5% | −23.0% | $624,319 |
| 2021 | 28.5% | 26.9% | 7.0% | 20.0% | $761,713 |
| 2020 | 18.0% | 16.3% | 1.4% | 16.4% | $592,917 |
| 2019 | 31.2% | 28.9% | 2.3% | 28.3% | $502,373 |
| 2018 | −4.2% | −6.2% | 1.9% | −6.0% | $382,872 |
| 2017 | 21.6% | 19.4% | 2.1% | 19.1% | $399,770 |
| 2016 | 11.8% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 9.5% | $328,743 |
| 2015 | 1.4% | −0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | $294,117 |
| 2014 | 13.5% | 11.4% | 0.8% | 12.7% | $290,116 |
| 2013 | 32.1% | 29.6% | 1.5% | 30.2% | $255,554 |
| 2012 | 15.9% | 13.4% | 1.7% | 13.9% | $193,389 |
| 2011 | 2.1% | −0.0% | 3.0% | −0.8% | $166,872 |
| 2010 | 14.8% | 12.8% | 1.5% | 13.1% | $163,442 |
| 2009 | 25.9% | 23.5% | 2.7% | 22.6% | $142,345 |
| 2008 | −36.6% | −38.5% | 0.1% | −36.6% | $113,031 |
| 2007 | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 1.3% | $178,148 |
| 2006 | 15.6% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 12.7% | $168,885 |
| 2005 | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | $146,078 |
| 2004 | 10.7% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 7.3% | $139,342 |
| 2003 | 28.4% | 26.4% | 1.9% | 26.0% | $125,825 |
| 2002 | −22.0% | −23.4% | 2.4% | −23.8% | $98,028 |
| 2001 | −11.8% | −13.0% | 1.6% | −13.2% | $125,622 |
| 2000 | −9.0% | −10.1% | 3.4% | −12.0% | $142,509 |
| 1999 | 20.9% | 19.5% | 2.7% | 17.7% | $156,658 |
| 1998 | 28.3% | 26.7% | 1.6% | 26.3% | $129,592 |
| 1997 | 33.1% | 31.0% | 1.7% | 30.9% | $100,977 |
| 1996 | 22.7% | 20.3% | 3.3% | 18.7% | $75,864 |
| 1995 | 37.2% | 34.1% | 2.5% | 33.8% | $61,838 |
| 1994 | 1.3% | −1.5% | 2.7% | −1.3% | $45,073 |
| 1993 | 10.0% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 7.0% | $44,483 |
| 1992 | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | $40,451 |
| 1991 | 30.2% | 26.3% | 3.1% | 26.4% | $37,632 |
| 1990 | −3.1% | −6.6% | 6.1% | −8.6% | $28,895 |
| 1989 | 31.5% | 27.3% | 4.6% | 25.6% | $29,809 |
| 1988 | 16.5% | 12.4% | 4.4% | 11.6% | $22,672 |
| 1987 | 5.8% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 1.3% | $19,455 |
| 1986 | 18.5% | 14.6% | 1.1% | 17.2% | $18,386 |
| 1985 | 31.2% | 26.3% | 3.8% | 26.4% | $15,517 |
| 1984 | 6.1% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | $11,824 |
| 1983 | 22.3% | 17.3% | 3.8% | 17.9% | $11,139 |
| 1982 | 20.4% | 14.8% | 3.8% | 16.0% | $9,105 |
| 1981 | −4.7% | −9.7% | 8.9% | −12.5% | $7,561 |
| 1980 | 31.7% | 25.8% | 12.5% | 17.1% | $7,934 |
| 1979 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 4.6% | $6,023 |
| 1978 | 6.5% | 1.1% | 9.0% | −2.3% | $5,082 |
| 1977 | −7.0% | −11.5% | 6.7% | −12.8% | $4,771 |
| 1976 | 23.8% | 19.1% | 4.9% | 18.1% | $5,129 |
| 1975 | 37.0% | 31.5% | 6.9% | 28.1% | $4,142 |
| 1974 | −25.9% | −29.7% | 12.3% | −34.0% | $3,024 |
| 1973 | −14.3% | −17.4% | 8.7% | −21.2% | $4,080 |
| 1972 | 18.8% | 15.6% | 3.4% | 14.8% | $4,762 |
| 1971 | 14.2% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 10.6% | $4,010 |
| 1970 | 3.6% | 0.1% | 5.6% | −1.9% | $3,510 |
| 1969 | −8.2% | −11.4% | 6.2% | −13.6% | $3,390 |
| 1968 | 10.8% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | $3,694 |
| 1967 | 23.8% | 20.1% | 3.0% | 20.2% | $3,334 |
| 1966 | −10.0% | −13.1% | 3.5% | −13.0% | $2,693 |
| 1965 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.9% | 10.3% | $2,991 |
| 1964 | 16.4% | 13.0% | 1.0% | 15.3% | $2,661 |
| 1963 | 22.6% | 18.9% | 1.6% | 20.6% | $2,286 |
| 1962 | −8.8% | −11.8% | 1.3% | −10.0% | $1,864 |
| 1961 | 26.6% | 23.1% | 0.7% | 25.8% | $2,044 |
| 1960 | 0.3% | −3.0% | 1.4% | −1.0% | $1,614 |
| 1959 | 12.1% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 10.2% | $1,609 |
| 1958 | 43.7% | 38.1% | 1.8% | 41.2% | $1,436 |
| 1957 | −10.5% | −14.3% | 2.9% | −13.0% | $999 |
| 1956 | 7.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | $1,116 |
| 1955 | 32.6% | 26.4% | 0.4% | 32.1% | $1,038 |
| 1954 | 52.6% | 45.0% | −0.7% | 53.7% | $783 |
| 1953 | −1.2% | −6.6% | 0.7% | −1.9% | $513 |
| 1952 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 0.8% | 17.3% | $520 |
| 1951 | 23.7% | 16.3% | 6.0% | 16.7% | $440 |
| 1950 | 30.8% | 21.7% | 5.9% | 23.5% | $356 |
| 1949 | 18.3% | 10.5% | −2.1% | 20.8% | $272 |
| 1948 | 5.7% | −0.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | $230 |
| 1947 | 5.2% | 0.0% | 8.8% | −3.3% | $217 |
| 1946 | −8.4% | −11.9% | 18.1% | −22.5% | $207 |
| 1945 | 35.8% | 30.7% | 2.2% | 32.8% | $226 |
| 1944 | 19.0% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 16.4% | $166 |
| 1943 | 25.1% | 19.4% | 3.0% | 21.5% | $140 |
| 1942 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | $112 |
| 1941 | −12.8% | −17.9% | 9.9% | −20.7% | $94 |
| 1940 | −10.7% | −15.1% | 0.7% | −11.3% | $107 |
| 1939 | −1.1% | −5.2% | 0.0% | −1.1% | $120 |
| 1938 | 29.3% | 24.5% | −2.8% | 33.0% | $122 |
| 1937 | −35.3% | −38.6% | 2.9% | −37.1% | $94 |
| 1936 | 31.9% | 27.9% | 1.4% | 30.1% | $145 |
| 1935 | 46.7% | 41.4% | 3.0% | 42.5% | $110 |
| 1934 | −1.2% | −4.7% | 1.5% | −2.7% | $75 |
| 1933 | 50.0% | 44.1% | 0.8% | 48.8% | $76 |
| 1932 | −8.6% | −14.8% | −10.3% | 1.8% | $51 |
| 1931 | −43.8% | −47.1% | −9.3% | −38.1% | $55 |
| 1930 | −25.1% | −28.5% | −6.4% | −20.0% | $99 |
| 1929 | −8.3% | −11.9% | 0.6% | −8.8% | $132 |
| 1928 | 43.8% | 37.9% | −1.2% | 45.5% | $144 |
The best year was 1954, up 52.6%. The worst was 1931, down 43.8%. The index lost money in 26 of the 98 years, roughly one year in four, and still turned $100 into about $1.16 million.
Single years swing far more than the averages above suggest. 2008 fell 36.6% and 2009 rose 25.9%; 2022 fell 18.0% and 2023 rose 26.1%. Someone who sold after the bad year missed the recovery that followed.
S&P 500 returns by decade
| Decade | Total return | Price only | Inflation | Real total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1930s | −0.9% | −5.3% | −2.0% | 1.1% |
| 1940s | 8.5% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% |
| 1950s | 19.5% | 13.6% | 2.2% | 16.9% |
| 1960s | 7.7% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 5.1% |
| 1970s | 5.9% | 1.6% | 7.4% | −1.3% |
| 1980s | 17.3% | 12.6% | 5.1% | 11.7% |
| 1990s | 18.0% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 14.7% |
| 2000s | −1.0% | −2.7% | 2.5% | −3.4% |
| 2010s | 13.4% | 11.2% | 1.8% | 11.5% |
| 2020s (to 2025) | 14.9% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 10.5% |
Twice, a whole decade lost money. The 1930s did, and so did the 2000s, which took the dot-com crash and the 2008 crisis back to back and ended down 1.0% a year, or 3.4% a year after inflation.
The 1970s look acceptable at 5.9% until you see inflation at 7.4%. In real terms stocks went backwards for ten years. When people worry about high inflation and rising rates at the same time, that's the decade they have in mind.
The strong decades tend to follow the bad ones. The 1950s came after the Depression and the war, the 1980s and 1990s after the 1970s, the 2010s after the 2000s. That doesn't make the next decade predictable. It does suggest that a lost decade is not a reason to leave.
Best and worst periods
| Holding period | Best | Worst | Share of windows that lost money | Lost money after inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 52.6% (1954) | −43.8% (1931) | 26.5% | 31.6% |
| 5 years | 28.3% (1995–1999) | −12.7% (1928–1932) | 11.7% | 23.4% |
| 10 years | 20.1% (1949–1958) | −1.7% (1929–1938) | 5.6% | 12.4% |
| 20 years | 17.7% (1980–1999) | 2.4% (1929–1948) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 30 years | 13.6% (1970–1999) | 8.0% (1929–1958) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Over one year, the index has lost money about a quarter of the time. Over 20 years it never has, even for someone who bought just before the 1929 crash. After inflation the picture is less comfortable: about one in eight 10-year periods lost purchasing power.
If you need the money within five years, the S&P 500 is a bet, not a plan. Past 15 or 20 years, history is firmly on your side.
Price return or total return?
News headlines use price return: "the S&P 500 rose 16% this year". In 2025 the price return was 16.4% and the total return, with dividends, was 17.7%.
If you hold an index fund such as VOO, IVV or SPY and reinvest the dividends (most brokers can do it automatically), total return is the relevant number. Fund fees are 0.03% to 0.09% a year for those three, small enough to ignore in a rough plan.
Nominal or real?
Use nominal if you want to know how many dollars will be in the account. Use real if you want to know what they will buy.
For retirement the second question is the one that counts. A million dollars in 30 years sounds like plenty. At 3% inflation it buys what about $410,000 buys today.
What return to use in an S&P 500 calculator
| If you want | Use about |
|---|---|
| A cautious plan in today's money | 5–6% |
| The long-run average after inflation | 6.5–7% |
| The long-run average in dollars, dividends reinvested | 9–10% |
| The last decade's pace (not a forecast) | 14–15% |
The S&P 500 calculator shows the result in today's money next to the nominal figure, so you can see both at once. To compare stocks with a savings account, including the years when savings rates were high, see S&P 500 vs high-yield savings.
Questions
What is the average annual return of the S&P 500?
From 1928 to 2025 the S&P 500 returned 10.0% a year with dividends reinvested, 6.3% on price alone and 6.8% after inflation, based on Aswath Damodaran's annual data at NYU Stern. The simple average of the yearly returns is higher, 11.9%, but that is not what an investor earned.
What was the S&P 500 return by year?
It varies a lot from year to year. The best year since 1928 was 1954 at 52.6%, the worst was 1931 at -43.8%, and 2025 returned 17.7% with dividends. The index lost money in 26 of 98 years. The table on this page lists every year.
What did the S&P 500 return over the last 20 years?
From the start of 2006 to the end of 2025 it returned 10.9% a year with dividends reinvested, or 8.2% after inflation. That window includes the 2008 crash.
What is the S&P 500's inflation-adjusted return?
Since 1928, about 6.8% a year with dividends reinvested, against 10.0% before inflation. Consumer prices rose 3.0% a year over the same period.
Past returns don't guarantee future results. This article is educational and is not financial advice.
Source: Damodaran, NYU Stern (S&P 500 total return, bonds, gold, T-bills, CPI), 1928–2025.
